It was a relaxed ex-chairman of La Sentinelle that we met. The ties and suits have been put away temporarily in the closet, awaiting the day when he takes up his role as secretary general of the Indian Ocean Commission. Though his next role will be a diplomatic one, his candid talk has lost none of its piquancy.

¦ It seems to me that you have been hiding from the media for some time now. Is it on purpose?

Yes. After forty years of almost daily involvement, I have opted to keep the media, including, La Sentinelle group, at a distance. I have been giving myself a detoxification period.

¦ Was it difficult?

Relatively, but the developments within La Sentinelle group, the pending issues at Radio One, which is so much my baby, continued to interest me while I kept my distance. Also, because of the functions I am about to assume as from July 15th, it was necessary for me to step back and look at what I have lived through during all these years. Active politics, journalism and now, diplomacy, a profession which is forcing me to learn to be quiet.

¦ Will you really be able to keep quiet?

No. I can only promise that I will try to learn. We will see. As secretary general of the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC), I should not get involved in partisan politics. But this function is also a political mandate. It, in fact, has a double, if not a triple, mandate: political, economic and diplomatic. And, Being the first Mauritian secretary general in the history of the IOC, I will have to be very cautious.

¦ But that does not prevent you from having an opinion about the current political situation.

No, it doesn’t - and I have strong views - or from talking about it in a diplomatic way. Which I am trying to do right now.

¦ Good! What are your thoughts on the political instability we are going through?

Is the current political situation really unstable?

¦ Well, for starters, the opposition is threatening to boycott the government programme…

That’s nothing new! The opposition has done it before. It’s a technique that it has been using. Perhaps some people would have preferred to see the opposition assuming its responsibilities, focusing on and criticizing the government programme instead of sorting out its own problems of power sharing. The policy of empty chairs may not be a solution and has never really produced any concrete results. But this does not reflect a situation of instability.

¦ What about a president who steps down to join active politics? Does that not create instablility?

No, it is in fact the end of instability! You have instability when a president who is supposed to protect and respect the institutions instead barges into the political arena and starts using a political discourse. The fact that Sir Aneerood is joining politics after he has resigned is not in itself a crisis of any sort, or a sign of instability. But let’s not get it wrong here. I don’t think that the president decided to step down because he desperately wanted to deliver his speeches at Bar Chacha instead of the State House. His aim now as an opponent is to destabilize the government. This is what the political game is all about. It’s not a coup d’état. Of course he resigned to provoke a momentum in favour of the opposition, a certain instability, or even more, an erosion of the political majority. This is clear but is also legitimate.

¦ Has he attained that goal?

For the time being, I would say no.

¦ When you say he has not achieved his goal for the time being, do you mean his move was miscalculated?

No, I am just saying that he hasn’t received the response he was expecting. As yet! I am talking in terms of the erosion of the majority. But a primary reaction may have been obtained: a new dynamism from the opposition. That much has been achieved. But his main goal has not been reached yet. That is, to destabilize the government and provoke early legislative elections and gain power. For that, we still need to wait for the next series of events to see if it has been a failure or a success. For the time being, depending on the position we choose to take, we can either say it’s a semi-failure or a semi-success. We have to wait for the situation to become clearer. Looking from a distance, we don’t feel that the government is weakening because if that were going to happen, it would have happened by now. But still we will have to wait and see. So far, political wars have been mostly ideological, communal or based on a clash of personalities. This time it’s going to be a guerre d’usure. Time will be the determining factor here.

¦ And which team is time favouring?

If there is no weakening of the majority in the short term and if it can maintain itself and the power it possesses, then it’s evident that biological time is in favour of the current prime minister. So it is in his best interests to use all of his energy to tire his challenger and wear him out. However, if the momentum of the opposition in the May1st meetings peaks so much that it seems clear that there is a switch in popularity which can be assessed by the size and the composition of the crowds, then it will change things. The karapat will start changing sides. They will reposition themselves depending on their perception of the electoral outcome. Karapat are of two species, there are rural as well as urban karapat. The MMM will attract one category and the MSM the other. All this will make an impact. Of course I am not talking of the electorate - voters do have the right to change sides. We are talking of the professional roder bout.

¦ Speaking of karapat, doesn’t this ‘turncoat’ phenomenon worry you – ethically, I mean?

It may be undemocratic but it has always been this way.

¦ Does that make it legitimate?

No, but it’s part of politics. It is not a Mauritian invention, contrary to what many believe. It happens under all regimes. It is not moral or honourable but it happens.

¦ The country seems to be divided among those who say the ex-president is coming back to save the country and those who are saying he is coming back to save his son. On which side are you?

Well, he is a pragmatic man. He has come back to save his family name. If this were a business context, people would have said that it is honourable. However, because it is a political matter, people are looking at it differently. But he has built a political patrimony and he built it legitimately – Sun Trust to my mind is not a political monstrosity and some criticisms on that score are very unfair – and it seems that if Sir Anerood does not get into active politics again, then it is the end of his son’s political career, mainly because of the stand taken by Bérenger. This might be his last chance. He has always been attached to his family, he has built a strong political and financial heritage in a methodical way, and he will do whatever it takes to save it by whatever means he can use. What he is doing is at least comprehensible, as opposed to what Bérenger is doing.

¦ What exactly is Bérenger doing?

Well, that is the problem here. I’m incapable of explaining it: he says one thing and its opposite in the same week. Since he is not stupid, then we have to believe he has got a strategy. Jugnauth, when he was president of the republic was Bérenger’s strongest opponent and now he realises that the stakes are high and he needs to save his heritage. There is a sort of passion and logic to what Jugnauth is doing. As far as Bérenger is concerned, I am sure he cannot be duped - he has changed his posture several times for reasons that can be explained. But then we are entitled to say that his remake may not be definitive either. I am waiting, like Bérenger and many other Mauritians, to see if the electoral reform project will become reality. According to me, it won’t just suffice for the prime minister to say that a reform will be implemented but he actually needs to present the bill to parliament. This new electoral regime should, in essence, propose to political parties a way out of the obligation to contract such lopsided preelection alliances as we have seen on so many occasions in the past. Not to mention lopsided electoral results. The reforms should have two aims: one is to create a system that is fairer and that cares more about the expression of suffrage and that puts an end to the outcomes which have penalized all the main political parties over time. The second aim is to make sure that this system helps to put an end to alliances and remakes that are not “natural”: the only reason you have these alliance is that you need to be two to beat the third and the present system forces you to do that. All political parties say that if the system were more just, then every party would count and the rest would depend on the electors and if coalitions are to be contracted, it would have to be after the elections.

¦ The difference is that the seats then would depend on the weight that each party has.

Exactly. The present system is the one that forces the MMM to offer half of their seats to a party that represents 4%.

¦ But was the MMM obliged to do that? During the last elections, many people found the 18 tickets offered to the MSM by the Labour Party extremely generous.

Politicians aren’t the sort of people who take electoral risks. This does not make any sense, but the system gives power to a small party. It is not a coincidence that the MMM are as much in favour of electoral reform as the Labour Party - or at least the prime minister is - and that the MSM is not so keen. The moment the electoral reform is voted, the MSM will be much weaker. That’s why the Jugnauths are so keen to finalize the deal now, even though, as Sir Aneerood himself said, the general elections are not forthcoming.

¦ Do you believe that the MMM and the MSM together will be able to beat the Labour Party?

You mean, in the next elections? In 2015?

¦ Yes. It is a hypothetical question.

(Laughs) Well, then come to see me in 2014 and we’ll talk about it.

¦ You mean, you have no idea now what could happen?

If the elections were to take place in 2015, no, not at all. Because the factors that will determine the results of those elections have not yet been established

¦ What factors are you referring to?

Well, the economic situation for instance. The prospects are looking grimmer in the short term although I think the World Bank may have some good reasons to make things look darker than they are. But in any case, because of the international context and local rigidities, the rate of growth is likely to remain sluggish.

¦ But do you think Mauritians care so much about the economy of the country?

Well, if it is good, maybe not, but if it is bad, then yes. Then you also have the Med Point issue for instance – who knows how that will end? Or whether there is a weakening of the majority or not, and in what circumstances. That will matter too. For the time being, we don’t know how these issues will have evolved by 2015. It is impossible to predict election results three years in advance. In fact, I can’t even bet on the fact that the Labour Party will be standing against an MSM/ MMM alliance in 2015!

¦ Are you saying that you don’t think that this alliance will last?

I think that once the electoral reform gets past parliament, the rapport des forces will probably change. It all depends on the details of the reform, the context in which it will pass and the conditions that it will impose. There will be much pressure from inside the MMM for the party to go on its own. The fact that the party has been pressured to offer half of its tickets to the MSM has created a lot of frustrations. And I think rightly so. And now if you add the fact that some MMM candidates may be in truth MSM sympathizers, Bérenger has got a real problem. From day one, he will be in the minority.

¦ Do you think Bérenger will let go of Anerood Jugnauth even though he was the one who made him step down as president?

(With a sarcastic laugh) Of course! On the spot! He let go of Anerood Jugnauth’s son the very next day after the alliance’s failure to go for his brother. Now he can do the same to Jugnauth Senior …

¦ Because he is out of Réduit?

Yes, and time is not on his side. And I am not saying this in an insulting manner. Bérenger will definitely let go of Jugnauth if need be once the electoral reform gets approved. Now let’s say that the alliance does reach the elections and Jugnauth does become the prime minister for three years, I can’t guarantee you that the alliance will stay together and that Bérenger will effectively become prime minister himself. I don’t think that Jugnauth has done all of this to help Bérenger become prime minister. He wants to get his son back in the arena. And maybe this will happen to the detriment of Bérenger.

¦ Even if the electorate’s wishes might be elsewhere?

Listen, Anerood Jugnauth and his party have been in power for 14 years while representing at most 20% of the population at the best of times.

¦ Who do you think will be the next president?

I don’t know. And I feel that even the prime minister himself does not know yet. Give me a good reason why the prime minister needs to urgently name a president in the coming days, weeks or even months?

¦ To get close to a community or a party.

Well, that would depend on his electoral strategy which is not yet determined. For now, I can see that he would maintain the vice-presidency with a woman who is a ‘pure-blood’ pro-Labour. But then again, if he decides to present himself in the next elections in a different configuration, he will have to change things around with a new strategy. If he goes to elections with the MMM, he will need to make sure the president seat’s is empty because he will need this bargaining chip. If he goes alone, then it all depends on what direction he wants to take from now till the elections. I think that it is too premature to discuss the choice of a new occupant for Réduit. And I do not see how nominating a president would bring any additional benefit to Labour’s image at this stage. I made a mistake when I thought that Jugnauth would never leave Réduit because I believed that he would not offer such a ‘gift’ to the prime minister, and yet, he did. Now, the ‘gift’ has become an element that Navin Ramgoolam can use in his strategy depending on the context that he is in and the electoral choice he has to make. It’s a leg-up which Anerood Jugnauth willingly gave Navin Ramgoolam. He could have stayed in the State House and continued to criticize…

¦ Would that have been acceptable?

No, not the way he was doing it openly and publicly. But then again, ask Jugnauth to go figure out how to be subtle.

¦ There is a Facebook page entitled “Jean Claude de l’Estrac for president of the republic”. How do you feel about that?

I don’t really go on Facebook. I don’t have the time. I would have to go and see what has been said, and by whom, and what the reasons advanced are. If there are partisans, they cannot be very many. I said to some friends who have been saying that I am a potential president that “I am and will always remain a potential president.” But I know many other candidates that could attract so many more partisans.

¦ Any names?

No.

¦ A woman will for the first time in Mauritius read the government programme. Does that mean anything?

No. It’s not her speech and it has nothing to do with her being a woman. Her gender makes no contribution to the speech.

¦ I agree, but don’t you think it’s a stepping stone for women?

No, not in these circumstances. I mean, she’s caught up in all of this. It’s not her fault that she has to read the government programme. (Laughs out loud)

(l’express Weekly, Friday 13 April 2012)

Touria PRAYAG