It sounds like a joke. But it’s not. The biggest loser in the by-election has been the MSM-ML government, even though it did not even take part in the election. And the Labour Party’s victory has driven home some facts to the other parties.

For the MSM, it’s driven home the fact that its efforts since 2015 to politically annihilate the Labour Party have not succeeded. In fact, its own missteps, in the eyes of the voters in No.18 at least, have overshadowed the past foibles of the Labour Party. For the MSM, the need for an alliance has become more acute than ever. If it was planning to wait for others to court it, this by-election is an indication that time is a luxury not on its side. For the MMM, the problem is a little different: its electorate was split between parties such as the PMSD and the MP. Nevertheless, this is the latest in a string of electoral defeats since 2005: its electorate has crumbled, its party fragmented and it’s headed by a 71-year-old leader with no clear successor. And, a result where the MMM candidate lost by nearly 5,000 votes in a constituency like Quatre Bornes, only makes the party’s claim that it plans to go alone in the next election all the more unbelievable (that is, if it was believed in the first place). Both the MMM and the MSM need an alliance. Badly. And the by-election has merely driven home that fact. And that’s bad news for the ML that looks like it will be the sacrificial lamb for the occasion.

The result also signals that the PMSD has not succeeded in positioning itself for a return to the days when it ruled Port Louis and Plaines Wilhems. In fact, it’s worse for the PMSD because its candidate came in fifth (after Jack Bizlall) with less than 10% of the vote, in a constituency that Xavier-Luc Duval represents as leader of the opposition. Not only has its ambition to replace the MMM failed so far; it’s no longer even looking like the big enchilada within Duval’s own constituency, let alone the wider opposition. Now the PMSD will have to go cap in hand to the Labour Party begging for an alliance (there is nowhere else to go now) with the Labour Party having the upper hand. It will have to forget its ambitions of installing Duval as a future prime minister. At least for now.

For Bhadain, it looks like the end of the road. His moment has passed and now all that remains to be seen is how long it takes for his party to completely disintegrate. The same is the case for Ganoo’s Mouvement Patriotique, with an uninspiring leadership, losing half its strength in parliament and now losing the by-election. If they were hoping a by-election victory would reverse their fortune, it did not turn out that way. But the case of the ‘left’ is more tragic. If it thought that popular disgust with traditional parties would give them some space to expand, they were right. Bizlall beat the PMSD, after all.  Unfortunately, they refused to unite around a common minimum programme and that vote was split too. If the votes of Bizlall and the ReA are taken cumulatively, they, in fact, come in second by beating out even the MMM! Just imagine how much pull that would have given the ‘left’ and the unions in future negotiations. But, true to form, they remained squabbling and split their own vote too. So Bizlall has to make do with fourth place. 

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