Our country is going through one of its worst economic challenges since Independence. All fundamentals are in the red. Growth is anaemic, inflation skyrocketing, jobs being destroyed, the budget deficit high, public sector debt unsustainable, the trade balance reaching record deficit, while the current account deficit dangerously high. Investment is very low while savings are abysmally inadequate. Our vulnerable compatriots are facing hunger and rising poverty due to the assault on their purchasing power by a combination of rising international prices, higher freight costs, supply bottlenecks and the relentless depreciation of the rupee. The middle class is fast descending into a lower economic category. There is hardly any foreign exchange available, leading to both a black market and an exchange control by stealth. 

The house is on fire. We need good firefighters to extinguish the raging economic and social inferno. Not cynical political partisanship. Instead of spending his precious time, effort, energy, resources and innovative thinking on finding ways and means to alleviate the hardship of people in a cool, composed, collected and responsible way and proposing an effective, robust, well-balanced, timely, temporary and effective roadmap to attenuate the devastating impact of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine on livelihoods, Minister Padayachy has blithely decided to look at the rear window. Instead of responding similarly to what other ministers of finance are doing elsewhere and providing quick relief to the suffering population, he callously engaged into a sterile narrative of comparative performance between the two years of 2008 and 2020. 

The government of 2008 intervened in a timely and effective manner to mitigate the adverse effects of the great recession. While the intensity of the current economic crisis is greater, the minister should certainly know that the country was spared the worst of the recession in 2008. Due to structural reforms undertaken in 2006 that built resilience and timely measures introduced in two budgets in one year (one outside the normal time frame), the country was able to ride the economic and financial storm with little damage. 

A simple comparative table will illustrate the huge difference in economic outcome between the two periods. 

In both cases, the economy had to be stimulated by a combination of fiscal, monetary and financial policies even if the scale in terms of GDP was different. I have used IMF and World Bank figures to make the comparison. The figures speak for themselves. 
• economic growth was at 5.5% in 2008 while it contracted by 14.9% in 2020; 
• the budget deficit was at 1.5% of GDP in 2008 and 16.6% in 2020; 
• the public sector debt stood at 55.3% of GDP in 2008 compared to 92.6% of GDP in 2020; 
• total external debt paid in expensive currencies was at 8.5% of GDP in 2008 and 21% in 2020; 
• investment was at 24.6% of GDP in 2008 and 17.9% in 2020; 
• savings accounted for 18.3% of GDP in 2008 and only 8.2% in 2020; 
• the balance of goods and services posted a deficit of 14.2% of GDP then and 22.2% in 2020; 
• the overall balance of payment had a surplus of 1.7% of GDP compared to a deficit of 4.9% of GDP in 2020; 
• Unemployment was at 7.2% and 9.2% in 2020; Foreign direct investment was estimated at Rs 11.4b in 2008 and Rs 11.7b in 2020. No prize for guessing how this small difference in rupee translates into USD... 12 years on; 
• The share of less productive real estate in FDI was 16.5% in 2008 compared to 73% in 2020; 
• The USD exchanged for Rs 27 in 2008, and for Rs 40 in 2020. 

It has already reached Rs 45… if one is lucky to find them on the market. 

If the minister was trying to score an unflattering political point or to deflect attention from a very important question, then he has certainly missed his objective. It is so obvious that wages and pensions in 2022 must be higher than in 2008. Similarly, the 2008 figures ought to be higher than in 1987. However, the minister surely knows that our GDP per capita in US$ has fallen to its level of 10 years ago as a result of the 22% depreciation of the rupee in two years. 

We are in dire economic straits. The predicament could worsen if the war escalates or digs in. We are in a very complex and complicated situation buffeted by heightened risks, rising uncertainty, greater instability and augmented volatility. With the destructive consequences of rising prices of food, petroleum products, medicines and other basic necessities on the purchasing power of our compatriots. 

The minister can ill afford tongue in cheek arguments or cutting his nose to spite his face. In this extremely challenging predicament, the best trifecta is to act responsibly, to reach out to others for reasonable and actionable solutions as the context is exceptional and to tell the truth to the nation. 

There are some tough calls to make. Some very difficult trade-offs also. 

The worst trifecta would be a combination of arrogance, ignorance and indolence. 

The country hopes that the minister fully appreciates the urgency of the moment, discharges his duties in a responsible manner and rises above partisan politics. 

It takes long time, patience, courage, determination and good policies to build prosperity. 

It takes just a few years and wrong policies to destroy what has been accomplished over decades. 

We should at all costs avoid the descent into the economic, financial and social chaos of Sri Lanka.