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Economic Growth or Political Inflation?

4 septembre 2024, 09:30

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In economics, there’s what we see, what we don’t see, and what others interpret through their own lenses. As the election season approaches, expect exaggerated claims and caricatures, with little objective synthesis.

Mauritius is undeniably undergoing a transformation, with its economy and infrastructure – particularly its roads – rapidly developing. Despite the global pandemic, the country has shown remarkable resilience, with its leading companies posting impressive growth. This growth isn’t just nominal, but real, even after accounting for inflation and depreciation. Such performance is a testament to the sound strategies employed by businesses and the effective policies implemented by the government. However, while the ruling party may highlight this rising profitability, its critics will likely ignore it, choosing instead to focus elsewhere.

From 2019 to 2023, the profits of Mauritius’s top 10 companies surged by 225%, from Rs 12 billion to Rs 39.1 billion. Even after adjusting for inflation and depreciation, real growth rates stand at 158% and 167%, respectively. This level of profitability is significant, especially when many global economies are grappling with stagnation or recession.

Noteworthy examples include IBL Ltd and Rogers & Company Ltd, which saw their profits increase by 250% and 304% nominally, and by 198% and 241% after adjusting for inflation. These figures highlight not just growth, but exceptional operational efficiency and strategic market expansion.

Even among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) listed on the Development and Enterprise Market (DEM), substantial profit increases were observed. The top five companies on the DEM saw their cumulative profits rise by 96% between 2019 and 2023, with a 55% increase even after adjusting for inflation.

These successes cannot be viewed in isolation. The government created a favorable environment for business growth, particularly through strategic measures introduced after the COVID-19 pandemic. Initiatives like the Wage Assistance Scheme and the establishment of the Mauritius Investment Corporation (MIC) were crucial in preventing widespread business closures, which would have had devastating effects on the economy.

However, as the political arena heats up, the focus often shifts. The MIC, lauded for maintaining financial stability, is criticized by some as a tool for cronyism, casting doubt on an entire economic ecosystem.

As Mauritius navigates this period of economic growth, it must not overlook the challenges ahead. The 2024-2025 budget will need to address key issues such as the cost of living, inflation, the value of the rupee, and public debt. Finance Minister Renganaden Padayachy faces the delicate task of balancing economic catalysts with the political demands of securing a third term for the ruling party.

Recent increases in the minimum wage and other social support measures, while necessary for social stability, could have long-term economic consequences if not carefully managed. The government must strike a balance between immediate social needs and long-term economic sustainability.

Mauritius is on an upward trajectory with promising growth prospects. However, maintaining this momentum will require careful management of the challenges ahead. As the IMF has warned, a more responsible fiscal approach, coupled with structural transformation, is necessary to protect the next generation and ensure vigorous and resilient long-term growth. The temptation to push these critical issues aside in the heat of an election must be resisted, as the stakes are too high for the country’s future.