The news came as a surprise to all the political pundits who were expecting at best a last-minute agreement – Navin Ramgoolam being perceived as someone who plays with his cards very close to his chest and a great fan of eleventh-hour decisions – and at worst, a theatrical act which would go against anything which Paul Bérenger was hoping for. Nobody had anticipated a denouement as early as this.

Not that it came anytime too soon. Weeks of uncertainty had taken their toll on even the most detached political observers. But everyone had started gearing up for delays and possibly some deceitful turn of events. The head of government did neither: key decisions were made and an agreement was reached between the two political leaders. End of Act One.

There is, however, a missing link: throughout the Koze-Kozer, Bérenger at times invoked some insurmountable differences – which at other times he euphemistically called “ti macadam” (small hurdles). In fact, these ‘small’ hurdles are far from being small. They centre around the whole concept of power sharing. Ramgoolam’s idea of a second republic is for him to be president with full powers while Bérenger deals with the day-to-day running of the country. Even this he will find difficult to ram through his rank and file, but that’s a different debate. Bérenger, on the other hand, has a different idea of a second republic. For him, the prime minister should keep all the powers of the current prime minister and the president should have “more powers than he currently does” – an incongruous situation if ever there was one. This almost boils down to saying that Ramgoolam hands over all the power which he currently wields to Bérenger and watches him exercise it. We know that Ramgoolam is not stupid, and he has shown no signs of being delusional. So why would he accept this proposal?  That is the missing link!

Two hypotheses. One: Bérenger has scaled back his ambitions a good deal. The only words which came out of Bérenger’s mouth after receiving the ‘alliance document’ was it’s “a good compromise”. Does that mean that he has realised his options are limited? Political observer Joseph Tsang Mang Kin talks of Bérenger as having “everything to gain if there is an alliance and everything to lose if there isn’t one while Ramgoolam has everything to gain whether there is an alliance or not”. Is it this asymmetrical relationship – perceived or real – which has pushed Bérenger to scale back his demands?

Two: The master strategist has lost his touch – the latter hypothesis being very unlikely. I think that once the document is official, probably this Saturday, one would benefit by reading the fine print. It would be interesting to see which parts of the macadams have been ditched and which have been massaged into a form which is slightly less unacceptable to Bérenger.

Right now, the picture is still blurred even to those very close to power. Many ministers and MPs have no idea what the details are and are busy looking for a way to safeguard their cabinet posts, their luxury cars with drivers and their taxpayer-subsidised trips around the world. Others have even started lobbying for splitting the Ministry of Finance into Finance and Financial Services – a dangerous move which serves no other purpose than to give those who have no competence in finance a ministry.

My money says that Act Two – which starts with this Saturday’s press conference – will bring some surprises. So, brace yourself!    

Opinion published in Weekly's edition of the 4th-10th September