A broad range of issues will be on the table, from 13 to 15 December, in Washington, D.C., at the second US-Africa Leaders Summit. Apart from climate change, and its impact on food security and coastal lines, participants will focus on the demographic challenges facing the continent.

By 2050, Africa’s population is projected to increase from some 1.2 billion to 2.3 billion people, leading to increased demand for food, water, land, and other resources. Going forward, the challenge for African leaders is to craft strategies and policies that monopolise on the productive potential of young Africans while mitigating the tensions that could result from increased resource competition.

Birth rates have moved in opposite directions in North and Sub-Saharan Africa, with total fertility rates (TFR) declining in the former and remaining high in the latter (except for Mauritius where the rate is 1.4). In Egypt, for example, the TFR has decreased to 3 children per woman, whereas the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s TFR has remained constant at 6.2.

In Africa, culture and religion play an especially critical role in shaping views on family planning, family size, and child-bearing. In this regard, longstanding attitudes are difficult to change. For example, in a number of sub-Saharan African countries, women report that the ideal number of children that they would like to have is six or more. As such, any strategy and plan related to the management of population growth in Africa should be discussed and planned in concert with religious and civil society leaders.

However, a handful of African countries, including Mauritius, have been able to reduce population growth by encouraging smaller family sizes. Women’s education, employment, and inclusion in political decisionmaking encourage family planning and reduces population growth. Rwanda (one of most densely populated countries in Africa) has managed to reduce family sizes. This decrease in the rate of population growth is attributable, in part, to the high number of women participating in the country’s parliament, which has emphasized family planning and women’s reproductive health.

The “youth bulge” is another concern in Africa. Research on the linkages between political instability and population age structures demonstrates that countries with a large proportion of young adults are more prone to civil unrest or democratic aspirations than countries with a dominant mature-age structure.

***

The Biden administration’s US Africa Strategy, released in August 2022, points out that “Sub-Saharan Africa’s governments, institutions, and people will play a critical role in solving global challenges”. In assessing other countries’ growing engagement with Africa, the strategy notes that “China views Africa as an important arena to challenge the rules-based international order, advance its own narrow commercial and geopolitical interests, undermine transparency and openness, and weaken US relations with African peoples and governments”.

Over the past two decades or so, China has mobilised many African countries to provide key support for several Chinese norms-changing resolutions in international agencies. In the UN Human Rights Commission (UNHRC), for example, African countries endorsed a Chinese supported resolution in 2017 that proposes an alternative interpretation of human rights centered on non-interference.

In August 2022, many African leaders reiterated their commitment to the position that “Taiwan is an inalienable part of China”. Some African governments have also supported parallel mechanisms created by China, like the Asia Infrastructure Development Bank and the One Belt One Road initiative, advancing China’s efforts to create alternative international institutions while reshaping existing ones.

Compared to other regions, African countries have been more accommodating with Chinese security programs like Xi Jinping’s new and still undefined Global Security Initiative (GSI), a framework for promoting bilateral and multilateral security arrangements based on China’s vision of domestic and international security. African governments endorsed the GSI at the November 2021 Forum for China-Africa Cooperation Summit and the second ChinaAfrica Peace and Security Forum in June 2022. China’s efforts to enlist African support can be expected to intensify during Xi’s third term. The United States has no choice but to oppose China’s grand strategy… by revitalising Washington, D.C.’s relationship with Africa.