This morning (Wednesday 31 March), the magic numbers were 40 - 12 - 8. Navin Ramgoolam succeeded in surprising me and making me jump on my chair when he announced the ticket repartition of the Rouge-Orange-pseudoBleu alliance: 35 - 18 - 7. We have yet to see in which constituencies the tickets will be distributed (and their electoral manifesto), but yet this ticket allocation is incoherent ... or is it?

The latest poll gave the Labour Party victorious in any configuration. More surprisingly, the poll said Labour would win with the support of 53% voters if they went alone (with PMSD) and ... 52%  with the MSM and PMSD. One reason might be that some minorities will be anxious upon seeing a Rouge-Orange-pseudoBleu alliance. Also, if we are to believe this poll, Navin Ramgoolam is the most preferred PM, with more than 50% positive views in every aspect (able to manage security, economy ...)

1st incoherence: why go in an alliance with the MSM when you are sure of winning the election? The MSM''''s leader has the ambition of becoming the next PM. In a three cornered fight, the MSM would be laminated, seriously tarnishing Pravind Jugnauth''s leadership image and leaving him out of the race for PM for at least the next 10 years. So why give him a lifeline (if you are a clear favourite)?

2nd incoherence: the manner in which the alliance was announced showed that this was planned from a long time. Navin Ramgoolam was discussing with both the MMM and MSM at the same time. It would seem that the Labour leader was very cunning and managed to: (i) fool the MMM and put it in a ''hibernating state'' from which it could not recover in the event of a snap election and (ii) decrease the bargaining power of the MSM so that they do not ask many tickets.

So, Navin appeared to be a clear winner: having cunningly fooled the MMM and having negotiated a very good deal: 40 - 12 - 8, with its allies ... Then came the announcement of the ticket repartition 35 - 18 - 7.

1st if Labour win with an outright 60 - 0 (impossible), this means that the MSM alone has to power to block any constitutional amendment ... 42 MPs alone is not enough to change the constitution. This is very inconsistent with the Labour''s leader autocratic attitude (reason often quoted as to why the negotiations with the MMM failed). Secondly, Pravind Jugnauth can easily form a strong opposition and present himself as an alternative PM for 2015 (if he decides to break-away half way through the mandate). 3rd the Alliance Sociale currently has around 44 MPs ... 42 MPs (without the MSM) is less than what they currently have: in fact it looks just like a deal to remove the MMM MPs out of the parliament ... IN THE EVENT OF AN IMPOSSIBLE 60-0 VICTORY!!!!!!!!!!!

So, there are two possible explanations for this inconsistency:

1. Navin Ramgoolam has serious issues as mentioned in http://sansconcessions.wordpress.com/2010/03/30/le-traumatise/ and needs to be reassured/feel secure.
2. Pravind Jugnauth is an extremely cunning politician outstanding negotiating powers.
3. Navin Ramgoolam wants a polarised campaign. (O_o)
4. The poll published is rubbish and the numbers have been cooked - with the real numbers being with Navin only.
5. The MMM alone is the strongest party in Mauritius and Navin has to resort to all sorts of treachery to be able to defeat the MMM.

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Bruno