“IT has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President,” Biden wrote in a letter posted on social media a little before 2 p.m. on a sunny and warm Sunday afternoon (Washington, DC time). “While it has been my intention to seek re-election, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.” In the Democratic circles, sources are saying that Barack Obama, who leads most of the fund-raising initiatives as a king-maker (or queen-maker?), might have been the one who finally managed to convince Biden to drop out of the race in the face of recent polls and Trump’s iconic revival.

This move is sending shock waves through the political world and plunging the Democratic Party into an unprecedented scramble to choose a new nominee to face bandaged-ear Donald Trump. Biden has thrown his support for the Democratic nomination behind Vice President Kamala Harris, but this endorsement is yet to be validated by the Democrats.

The historic decision makes Biden the first sitting President to cancel his re-election campaign in over 50 years. Before Biden, Lyndon Johnson announced in March 1968 he would not accept the Democratic Party’s nomination amid disapproval over his handling of the Vietnam War. Biden’s departure opens the door for Harris – or another younger Democratic leader – to compete against the 78-year-old Trump. Before Biden’s move, most of the recent polls indicated that Trump would have won against Biden.

“It’s the economy, stupid!” This famous mantra, coined by James Carville in 1992, remains a key determinant in U.S. presidential campaigns. However, the failed assassination attempt against Donald Trump might have been a game changer. The iconic image of Trump’s clenched fist has transformed a dangerous moment into a political advantage. This image of Trump – resilient in the face of an assassin’s bullets – is indeed influencing his bid for the White House.

As we approach another election season, both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump were staking their claims on having the superior economic record. Despite Biden’s impressive economic metrics, Trump’s advantage was driven not only by his economic performance but also by his resilience, especially after surviving an attack at a political rally.

Trump inherited a lukewarm economy and, through substantial tax cuts and increased government spending, spurred a period of significant growth and job creation. However, the pandemic severely impacted this progress, resulting in the loss of 23 million jobs. Yet, voters remember the initial economic boom fondly, associating it with Trump’s leadership and policies.

Biden, on the other hand, took office during the ongoing challenges of Covid-19. His administration injected significant government spending, leading to a swift economic rebound, the creation of over 15 million jobs, a resurgence in manufacturing, and a startup boom. Despite these achievements, the lingering effects of the pandemic included the highest inflation rates in 40 years, which continue to affect public perception negatively.

While data may show that Biden’s economic results are commendable, the psychological impact of inflation cannot be overlooked. Inflation affects everyday life directly, from grocery bills to gas prices, making voters feel the pinch more acutely than the benefits of job creation and economic growth. Moreover, Trump’s supporters view him as a fighter who, despite numerous challenges, continues to stand strong. The assassination attempt has galvanized his base, creating a perception of invincibility and unyielding determination.

Voters often prioritize personal and immediate economic experiences over broader economic metrics. Trump’s period of economic expansion before the pandemic and his recent demonstration of resilience have created a potent combination that resonates with many Americans. They perceive him as a leader capable of driving economic success and standing firm in the face of adversity.

Key points of comparison

Inflation vs. Wages: Wage growth under Trump outpaced inflation, making voters feel economically secure. Under Biden, wages have struggled to keep up with rising prices, despite recent improvements.

Total Jobs Added: Biden has overseen the addition of 15.7 million jobs, surpassing the pre-pandemic employment levels. Trump’s pre-pandemic job growth was strong, but the pandemic reversed these gains.

Economic Growth: Both presidents oversaw strong economic growth, with Biden’s post-pandemic recovery being particularly robust.

Home Buying: Under Trump, homeownership rates increased due to low mortgage rates. Biden’s term has seen home prices soar, making home buying the most expensive in 40 years.

Jobs by County: More counties had lower unemployment under Biden, though swing states like Michigan and Nevada did better under Trump.

African American Workers: Employment for African Americans improved under both administrations, reaching historic lows in unemployment rates under Biden.

U.S. Manufacturing: Factory construction surged under Biden due to substantial federal investment, outpacing Trump’s efforts.

Job Creation by Industry: Job growth across various sectors has been stronger under Biden, particularly in manufacturing and professional services.

Home Prices: Home prices have continued to rise under both presidents, benefiting current homeowners but making it harder for new buyers.

Economic Sentiment: Consumer sentiment was higher under Trump. The inflation surge under Biden has negatively impacted public perception.

Inequality: Wage inequality has decreased under Biden due to higher raises for low-income workers, despite ongoing inflation challenges.

Annual Income: Median household incomes rose during Trump’s term but fell during the pandemic. They have since rebounded under Biden.

Health Insurance: The uninsured rate reached an all-time low under Biden, thanks to expanded government subsidies.

Stock Market: Both presidents saw significant stock market gains, with Trump slightly ahead.

Federal Debt: Both presidents added trillions to the federal debt, with Trump adding more outside of pandemic-related spending.

To conclude, while Biden has a strong economic record, the immediate psychological impact of inflation and Trump’s resilient persona are influencing voter sentiment. As the November 5 election approaches, it’s clear that economic perceptions and personal narratives will play a crucial role in determining the outcome. Trump’s current lead in the polls is a testament to the enduring power of economic perception and the appeal of resilience in times of adversity, especially in the face of political violence. Yesterday, Trump was seen as a provocateur who could burn down the Capitol; today, he has become a victim of political violence and is hailed as a hero by some people, not only in the U.S. but around the world.

The Democratic National Convention’s rules committee called a Wednesday meeting to discuss the process for picking a new presidential nominee…

Nad Sivaramen (de Washington, D.C.)

Directeur des publications