We got hold of Godfrey Baldacchino, Professor of Sociology, University of Malta European University of the Seas, while he was visiting the University of Mauritius for a series of talks. It is his second visit after 24 years. Based in Malta – the world’s tenth smallest country by area – and being Malta’s Ambassador-at-Large for Islands and Small States, we sought his views on the situation in Mauritius with a detour to Chagos. He also offers interesting comments on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s possible plans for Taiwan.

First, could you give us the context of your visit to Mauritius, the second after 24 years?

My visit has several purposes, the main one being to develop deeper and stronger links between our two universities. We have a lot in common. We are both state universities of our respective countries. We are conscious of our geographical isolation suffer from some isolation and we have to compensate for that by having a stronger, proactive stance in favour of an internationalisation of our curriculum, our staff complement, our student body, and so on.

Have you come with some goodies in your suitcases?

Yes, the University of Malta is currently offering fee waivers of up to 100% to students from outside the European Union doing postgraduate research with us. So we have some current Mauritian students and and some prospective students from Mauritius. So I am kind of touching base with our former, current and prospective students while here.

Coming to your interest in islands and small states, how much of the world population are we talking about?

Ten per cent of the world’s current population lives on islands and small island states. That is about 550 million people. Half of those live on four islands: Luzon in the Philippines, Honshu in Japan, Java in Indonesia and Britain in the UK. And then there are 3813 officially recognised small states that form part of what are called ‘small island developing states’ within the United Nations. Almost one out of every five countries in the world is recognised as a small state.

You are also interested in subnational island jurisdictions of which Mauritius forms part, aren’t you?

Yes, indeed! Mauritius finds itself as a jurisdiction that has subunits. They come in different shapes and sizes, starting from Rodrigues that has its own regional body, there is potentially Tromelin, San Brandon island, Agalega and Chagos of course, which is increasingly in the picture. 

“The status of chagos as a subnational jurisdiction of mauritius will have to be raised at some point. So it might be useful for Mauritius to be proactive on this issue. Just as rodrigues has its own jurisdictional status within the republic of mauritius, its own assembly, electoral district, etc., it may be opportune for mauritius to think about what it has to offer chagos once the islands have been restored to mauritius.''

What do you think of the recent development regarding Chagos, particularly the successive court cases and the trip to the islands?

Mauritius is showing that small states can also play a role in international relations; that the Indian Ocean is not dominated or directed by just the interests of the large powers current or prospective, but that it is also driven by what small states do. Because small states have jurisdiction, they also have some leverage in what is going on.

What kind of leverage do they have?

Sometimes it’s just soft power but in this case, it is soft power supported by international law. David does get to beat Goliath sometimes: I am editing a book precisely on this topic right now.

 Be that as it may, isn’t might always right?

No, I don’t believe so. It may appear like that but time will work in favour of Mauritius. l In the long run? In the medium term. l What do you think will happen and in what time frame? If Mauritius plays its cards right and becomes a reliable player in the Indian Ocean, the superpowers will reach out much more to Mauritius and will explore the feasibility of having Mauritius as a key player around the Chagos affair. The US is very keen to see its strategic and military interests and assets protected. These are not necessarily protected by the United Kingdom right now in spite of what it appears to be, particularly after Brexit, as Britain has lost a lot of influence and leverage including through the EU; of course, its role as ‘Global Britain’ is still being hammered out but it’s finding itself much more isolated. So the so-called special relationship between the UK with the US may come up for negotiation.

Meanwhile, we are witnessing the first serious military conflict in Europe after many decades. What is going on?

Russia has been seriously concerned about having NATO in its backyard. Like any other major player, Russia would like to have buffers to protect itself. If Ukraine joins NATO, there goes the buffer. Russia has invaded Ukraine to demilitarise the country and install a sympathetic government. It is a show of force against an almost landlocked country like Ukraine, with a superpower that’s feeling smitten and outraged by recent developments.

 With the expansion of NATO?

Yes, primarily. I am not justifying the invasion. It remains a flagrant violation of international law and respect for sovereignty; and lives are being lost while others will be traumatised or maimed for life. But this is the geopolitical explanation of this invasion. Island states don’t suffer from this because they don’t have neighbours sharing the same land borders. 

Does it matter whether the neighbours are divided by water or land?

Yes, it does. Because organising the invasion of an island state is more difficult.

“What will change is the opinion the world has of russia in the sense that it was quick to invadea sovereign state and at the same time thisperhaps reconfirms a different type of coldwar. So we might be going backto a pre-1991 scenario.”

 But, if might is right, you have the military power, the logistics and the know-how…

Both Hitler and Napoleon captured virtually the whole of Europe but could not invade Britain, which is an island.

 Just because it is an island?

Yes. Logistically, it’s a much more difficult operation to handle. An island’s best defence is the engirdling sea.

 Suppose we were close to Russia and the latter was interested in us, would a few miles of water be able to deter it?

No, if you were close to Russia, it would be a different story. It’s not just the water. It’s the location as well.

How worried are you about the escalation in Ukraine?

Russia would like to ensure that the military infrastructure in Ukraine is compromised and that a sympathetic (meaning not pro-EU/NATO) government takes over. The situation may unfold si- milarly to Georgia in 2008. Georgia had a pro-West president at the time, Russia begged to differ and in that case it was Georgia that started the military operation. Now there are two autonomous regions within Georgia that are recognised only by Russia.

 And the West will react only in words of course?

Economic sanctions are likely to prove the main response. It is also being said that NATO is now stronger in the face of Russian aggression.

There won’t be any military escalation? What would that lead to?

Why would anyone in their right mind place soldiers on the ground to fight Russia? US Pres- ident Joe Biden has sent some US troops to Germany but not to fight in Ukraine. I don’t see any concerted reaction to Rus- sia from NATO, other than in providing military equipment to Ukraine.

 What will the implications of all this be on the world?

What will change is the opinion the world has of Russia in the sense that it was quick to invade a sovereign state and at the same time this perhaps reconfirms a different type of cold war. So we might be going back to a pre-1991 scenario. Ok, the Soviet Union is gone and Russia has replaced it. But Russia, more than the West, is looking for a narrative that presents it as being harassed by the West. It is a country whose political leadership nurses a rheto-ric of national pride and identity. In fact, this is the discourse that it has put forward for justifying invading Ukraine – that Ukraine has historically been part of Russia and that Ukrainians are essentially Russians in disguise. Independent third parties looking at this however will see gaps and loopholes in this interpretation and justification of this invasion.

“One of the reasons why china is not yet contemplating an integration of Taiwan into the motherland is because a lot of the world’s computer chips and powerful microprocessors are still made in Taiwan and China needs those same chips.”
 

 If Russia gets away with it, don’t you think China might make a move on Taiwan using the same arguments?

This is a different type of geopolitics. The US has committed to defending Taiwan should it be invaded, and not only Taiwan but also Japan. One of the reasons why China is not yet contemplating an integration of Taiwan into the motherland is because a lot of the world’s computer chips and powerful micro-processors are still made in Taiwan and China needs those same chips.This is political economy and the West too knows this.

 But President Xi Jinping often talks about unification and bringing back Chinese pride, is that not a hint?

That discourse plays up to the local population but it will not necessarily translate into military action. The last time China tried to invade Taiwan (and failed) was in the 1950s.

Coming back to islands and small states, some new developments have played in our favour, haven’t they?

Yes. The United Nations Law of the Sea has done a great service to island jurisdictions. I believe Mauritius is a signatory to the convention that allows island states to claim, following due justification and documentation, up to 200 nautical miles as an exclusive economic zone. This area, though not subjected to the jurisdiction of the country, is nonetheless, at its disposal for economic purposes, such as mining, fishing and other activities.

 To what extent has Malta, where you come from, benefited from this exclusive zone?

I mean in Mauritius, we still import fish… Malta has a diversified economy and this includes a fairly significant aquaculture industry, which includes fattening wild tuna, which is then exported for sashimi to Japan. I am told that currently Malta also exports tuna to Mauritius.

And Malta is a tiny island, isn’t it?

Yes it is. Malta’s main island is oneseventh the size of Mauritius: it would fit between Curepipe and Port Louis. Its population is just over half a million. However, our economy is more diversified than that of Mauritius and we do not depend as much on international tourism.

 Apart from aquaculture, what kind of lessons you think we could learn from Malta and vice versa?

One of the reasons I have come here is to see if there is interest and appetite for a stronger internalisation of the University of Mauritius. One way of doing that is by continuing the transition from a mainly teaching and learning institution to a mainly research, teaching and learning institution. You have high flyers and very good researchers and academics here. You should celebrate the academics you have but we need to increase the incentive for people to publish and get cited, increase the incentives for offering joint or multiple degrees, to attract international students and recruit international scholars.

And increase the university ranking…

That will follow: once there is more research, the scholarship of more academics is cited and more international scholars are recruited, the ranking of the University of Mauritius will automatically increase.

 What is it you would like to take home from here?

The metro. Malta is a rapidly developing small island state and we have a growing middle class. For us, as in Mauritius, a car is not just a means of transportation but a status symbol. Of course, the government has reacted by building and expanding more roads, flyovers, etc. but cars have increased and the logjam on the roads is a reality. Government has no appetite to restrict car ownership, which would be a politically suicidal move. So one feasible solution is to build a light tram/metro network in the most densely populated areas, something you did here in less than six years. In this way, passengers have a choice. A multi-modal transport policy is the way to break the hegemony of the private vehicle.

 Will it be as free as the buses in your country right now?

Public transport in Malta will be free as of this year. It a powerful way to incentivise people to leave their cars at home. Although, to be fair, it will never be only a matter of pricing, but also of nudging people to change behaviour; and that is harder to do.  

 I would like us to end this interview by talking about Chagos. Any advice you can offer in that field?

I think one of the things that has not yet come up as far as I can see is: Might not the Chagossians be asking for their own decolonisation from Mauritius at some point?

I don’t know. Chagos is part of Mauritius so the question is not relevant, is it?

The status of Chagos as a subnational jurisdiction of Mauritius will have to be raised at some point. So it might be useful for Mauritius to be proactive on this issue. Just as Rodrigues has its own jurisdictional status within the republic of Mauritius, its own assembly, electoral district, etc., it may be opportune for Mauritius – now while it has time to do so and when there is no pressure – to think about what it has to offer Chagos once the islands have been restored to Mauritius and a resident population takes shape. What status will Chagos and the Chagossians have once they are part of Mauritius (again)? Will Chagos be considered in the constitution as an autonomous region like Rodrigues? Would it have its own representatives elected to parliament? Will it have its own political parties? Will they have some autonomy when it comes to certain political issues? These, I think, are very interesting questions.

Will these questions not be considered premature?

On the contrary. I think that, if they are raised, they will strengthen the position of Mauritius by showing that it is thinking far ahead and behaving as if Chagos was part of Mauritius. Mauritius will then be better able to control the narrative. Unless we take our future into our hands, others will invariably plan our future for us.