Making assumptions about the current political situation is as useless as it is disrespectful towards its inherent chaos and unpredictability. We’ll make one anyway. Regardless of what happens on the political scene this year, Xavier-Luc Duval, leader of the Parti Mauricien Social Démocrate (PMSD), will not want a general election.

Now that the shock of Duval’s departure from government has dissipated, it is time to think about his next step. Sitting tight in the opposition is good fun these days but the PMSD wants more. It wants the same thing that the MMM has wanted for decades but has failed to get. Duval wants to lead the first government in our history without a Ramgoolam or a Jugnauth in it. 

Unsurprisingly, Duval believes that he can do that by proving his worth as leader of the opposition. Paul Bérenger could tell him that’s not how it works but the leader of the PMSD will probably have to learn it the hard way. Even though he does not want a general election, Duval is desperate to test his party’s strength. The popularity of the PMSD has grown over the last couple of years, mainly in the urban regions.

As much as we find it hard to believe sometimes, political moves are not random. The PMSD’s stern resistance in the municipalities is a thinly veiled attempt to provoke the government away from the national assembly. Municipal councillors are at the beck and call of their party leader and can be more easily sacrificed than a member of parliament. The official word from the PMSD regarding the situation in the municipalities proves that point. They want municipal elections because they believe that they were at the heart of the Alliance Lepep win in 2015.

It would provide the perfect opportunity for Duval to test his strength as a prime ministerial candidate in the urban regions without sacrificing his position as leader of the opposition. A win on his own —albeit unlikely — would propel Duval to a whole different dimension, as he tries to remove the label “follower” tagged to him.  

However, a defeat would not be too detrimental to the image of the PMSD either. The excuses are ready. “It was only our first election on our own”, “the only way is up for us now” or even the classic “we have come out of this election stronger than ever”. A defeat in the municipal elections would also allow them to think about future alliances. After all, even though it looks like forever, there is still more than half of the Alliance Lepep’s mandate to go. It gives the leader of the PMSD more than enough time to revert to being a follower. 

Truth is, municipal elections do not seem likely at this point in time. In the meantime, Duval will be left wandering in political limbo like a rebel without a cause. The PMSD would be right at home.  

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