Grand predictions can be spectacularly miscalculated. How many times have we seen a cult leader, gathered with his flock at the top of a hill, all dressed in white, waiting for the mother spaceship to appear to take them to Heaven at precisely noon on the appointed day, being left at the altar? However, in the case of Covid-19, we can make some informed guesses as to how the pandemic it is unleashing will profoundly change Mauritius by setting some boundary conditions; here are five of mine: 

1. We are in World War C19 (WWC19); 
2. The world will avoid worst death-toll predictions; 
3. Markets will react enthusiastically, when humanity has practically flattened the curve of the pandemic; 
4. Institutions will function worldwide and especially in Mauritius, and 
5. Within 12 months (April 2021), we will have a vaccine against C-19 that is affordable and available around the world, including Mauritius. 

Based on these assumptions, we could have the five following outcomes in Mauritius: 

Outcome 1 – Economy. Our economy is so intimately linked to the world’s. We often worry that tourist arrivals and oil prices, for example, have much more impact than say, other national economies. If most of the devastation is over in six months – difficult to imagine -- tou pou korek for the bourgeois class and above (that’s you, dear reader). If WWC19 drags on, the pain will be felt across the board with those at the lower rungs of the ladder paying an inordinate share of the burden. I would expect our policy-makers to focus on developing a sustainable local economy; hearken back to the 1970s with kitchen-gardening and ‘Buy Mauritian’. We will also have to invest in and to tie ourselves to regional economies; 

Outcome 2 – Politics. Our institutions are strong, as highlighted in this week’s The Economist. We will continue our democratic tradition, even if WWC19 lingers. In the end, the strength of our institutions, which depends on the political class, is our most important weapon against Covid- 19. Many other nations cannot boast such a formidable asset; 

«If most of the devastation is over in six months – difficult to imagine -- tou pou korek for the bourgeois class and above (that’s you, dear reader).»

Outcome 3 – Society. One defining feature of Mauritian society is our gregariousness, the need to have human connection. Because of social distancing measures for the foreseeable future, we have to live more online. Expect more original Internet content; expect better selfpolicing of trolls, and better online etiquette. And in relation to Outcome #1, expect commerce to move more online in most creative ways buoyed by our Fintech sector – the al bazar samedi could fade away, much to the chagrin of sentimentalists like me; 

Outcome 4 – Health. I Have a Dream. WWC19 will spur the good faith establishment of the 5-2035 Vision of empowered and frugally innovative community health as proposed by our foundation – www.gfchealth.org. People Power! Science First! We need to curb diabetes in the country. It is a long-term existential threat like no other; and 

Outcome 5 – Mauritius in the World. We will thrive and punch, as is our history and fate, in a much higherweight class. ` 
Vive l’île Maurice! Be safe everyone!

Dr Shivraj Sohur, M.D., Ph.D, neurologist at Harvard Medical School.