Following the recent rumours about the lockdown in Mauritus being lifted on April 15th, we now have a piece written by Georges Chung, adviser to the PMO and businessman, stating that “ Il est temps de reprendre le travail avant qu’il ne soit trop tard.” Whilst I do not agree with this tenet, I believe that there are some important points in his piece. As such, let us have an open debate on this matter which is key not only during the duration of the lockdown but probably for the years to come.
 
At the outset, let us agree that there is no quick fix. To draw some kind of parallel, we have to go back to the Spanish Flu in 1918 when about 500 million people, one third of the world population, were contaminated with over 50 million deaths. And there has been quite a few changes since those days. So there is no real precedent or textbook on economics or healthcare that can help us find the right answer.
 
Let me start by what we seem to agree upon.
 
It is undeniable that the public health crisis that we find ourselves in has already sown the seeds to an economic and a social crisis. The Great Lockdown, as it is now called, has brought the global economic machine to an almost grinding halt with the dire consequences that will inevitably follow. This Tuesday, the IMF has had to tear down its estimate made just three months ago of 3.3% global growth to a contraction of 3%.
 
And Gita Gopinath, its Chief Economist, believes that it will be the worst recession since the Great Depression of 1929 which culminated in World War II ten years later. As a comparison, the recent Global Financial crisis of 2009 which led to such worldwide pandemonium (but fortunately not here) resulted in a global contraction of only 0.1% !
 
Allow me to quote the following from the IMF blog:
 
“ This is a truly global crisis as no country is spared. Countries reliant on tourism, travel, hospitality, and entertainment for their growth are experiencing particularly large disruptions. Emerging markets and developing economies face additional challenges with unprecedented reversals in capital flows as global risk appetite wanes, and currency pressures, while coping with weaker health systems, and more limited fiscal space to provide support. Moreover, several economies entered this crisis in a vulnerable state with sluggish growth and high debt levels.”
 
This speaks more than the figures. The impending economic and social crises will cause untold damage to society: massive unemployment, abject poverty, broken families, social hardships, as well as more stretched public services including health, social services and education. And unfortunately countries like ours will be hardest hit. The living standards that we took so long to achieve and the aspirations that we nurture are under serious threat.
 
So, by all means, let us not just dwell on what is at the forefront of our minds right now. We cannot afford to ignore the costs of the impending social and economic crises which are not just knocking at our door but are already in most of our homes. Policy makers are therefore agonising whether to ease some lockdown restrictions in order to salvage our battered economies or to persevere with draconian measures until the decline in cases is conclusively achieved.
 
It is undeniable that we cannot afford to resolve these problems sequentially. Wait for the pandemic to be over and then tackle its repercussions is just not an option. Because there is a cause and effect relationship between lockdown and recession.
 
But from there to say that “Il est temps de reprendre le travail avant qu’il ne soit trop tard.” is a giant leap that we should not take lightly. We are told about Hong Kong, Austria, Denmark, United Kingdom, USA, Sweden, India, Spain and Italy which “ … a décidé d’ouvrir une partie de ses magasins aux écoliers.”
 
Hong Kong is a good example of avoiding to rush into an early lifting of confinement. It is true that like Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong have been commended for their early successes resulting from contact tracing and testing. However, these countries have recently experienced symptoms of a possible second wave of the disease with new cases being in double digits for consecutive days at some stage in the last two weeks. These sudden infection surges are a clear warning against complacency and moving too fast more so as there are concerning signs that those who had contracted the virus are not immune from relapse. Professor David Hui Shu-Cheong, from Chinese University, only recently stated Hong Kong could only claim victory if reported daily cases were in the single digits for four weeks, equivalent to two incubation periods. Should we not adopt the same approach?
 
As for the recent relaxation in Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has clearly stated that the resumption of normal activity will happen in phases and will be accompanied by efforts to monitor new cases and prevent further contagion with a warning that restrictions may be further extended after the latest extension to April 26. As well as announcing the distribution of ten million masks, his government has already distributed one million testing kits with a further five million expected in the coming weeks. All this has not prevented the government from being blamed for “irresponsibility and recklessness”. Very importantly, the slowdown in the number of new cases and deaths seems to indicate that Spain may have passed its pandemic peak. Are we already at this stage in our pandemic cycle and have we equipped ourselves with the means to counter a second wave?
 
This question presupposes that we have already flattened the curve in Mauritus as many optimists amongst us are taking solace in the considerable slowdown in the number of new cases over the last week. Whilst this would indeed be wonderful news, let us not lull ourselves into complacency and succumb to the sirens luring us into deeper water. We need to reassure ourselves first that there is indeed a sustainable deceleration in the number of cases instead of a mere plateau. How does our rate of about 6,400 tests per million of inhabitants compare to other countries? I urge the NCC spokesman to double check the figures he gave for USA and South Korea. Are our contact tracing process and sampling adequate? Are we confident about the right number and quality of kits? Do we now have an adequate supply of masks and ventilators? By when can we expect all front liners, those most at risk to be contaminated and to contaminate, to be tested? As winter sets in, will lifting restrictions on movement not cause the virus to spread again, prompting a new wave of social distancing measures?
 
As for Sweden, UK and USA, these countries are hardly the examples we would wish to emulate. A policy based on herd immunity, the survival of the fittest leaving the weaker ones to die, is more akin to the Pogrom era and has no place in modern society. And what about all the dizzying about-turns of POTUS when he claimed that the USA will be open for business by Easter? Who has now announced a cut of all funding to the World Health Organisation (WHO), the international organisation at the forefront of the fight against the pandemic? You should hear how my despairing Swedish friends echo what their scientists are saying about the failed strategy adopted by their leaders. They also tell me how quickly Denmark reacted to the crisis and how much they have spent fighting it. Are we in a similar position to the Danes and the Austrians?
 
Let us instead listen to what the unbiased experts are saying. The head of the WHO, Tedros Ghebreyesus, has, as recently as on Easter Monday, cautioned over moves by countries to lift lockdown conditions. He said much was still unknown about the behaviour of the virus, and emphasised that tracing, testing and isolating were still crucial to controlling the outbreak with Covid-19 accelerating very fast, but decelerating much more slowly. To quote him: “In other words, the way down is much slower than the way up.” He obviously does not have the same crystal ball as the author here who is adamant that “Dans deux mois ou trois au plus tard quand le virus sera dominé…”
 
A study published in the well-respected medical journal, The Lancet, has warned that lockdowns across the globe should not be completely lifted until a vaccine for the disease is found. This study, based on China's outbreak, used mathematical modelling to show how lifting such measures prematurely could result in a sweeping second wave of infection.
 
So far confinement involving social distancing, coupled with hygiene, tracing and testing has provided the only workable solution to slowdown the pandemic and resulting deaths. It is certainly not the perfect solution but I hardly believe that it is the images of death in Wuhan, Spain, Italy and USA that “…ont sans doute instauré la panique à nos gouvernements les obligeant à nous confiner.” If one believes that social distancing has been a mere panic measure, I understand the haste amongst that crowd in getting rid of it. I wonder as to how our considerable existing economic woes will be masked.
 
Although his contention is that “…la veritable solution consiste à rouvrir les usines et le plus vite possible...”, to be fair to Georges, he does say that “Notre pays doit reprendre le travail tout en observant un strict protocole afin de diminuer les risques,…”. I totally agree that we cannot move from black to white but rather from black to different shades of grey and eventually to the new white, that is a controlled and gradual lifting of confinement until a vaccine is found. But the key question is when and how.
 
To help governments decide when to lift their confinement measures, the WHO has devised the following set of six criteria governments must aim to fulfil:
1. Transmission is controlled
2. Health system capacities are in place to detect, test, isolate and treat every case and trace every contact
3. Outbreak risks are minimised in special settings like health facilities and nursing homes
4. Preventive measures are in place in workplaces, schools and other places where it's essential for people to go
5. Importation risks can be managed
6. Communities are fully educated, engaged and empowered to adjust to the new norm.
 
With all due respect, we are not quite there yet. Let us inspire ourselves from countries like South Korea and New Zealand. Unlike other leaders, and this does not include just our own ones, their leaders quickly realised that to win this battle, they needed to engage the population and adopt a policy of transparency.
 
It is never too late. Whoever listened to President Macron on Monday would have been struck by his tone of humility, acceptance of his failings and lack of preparation, and promise of a clear plan for doing better in the coming weeks.
 
Our leaders should be inspired this and accept that this battle will only be won by engaging the population. We therefore need to have transparency as to the indicators to trigger a lifting of confinement, the guidelines and the phases we are contemplating. Otherwise, the population will not collaborate wholeheartedly as it will feel that it is the “business as usual” lobby that is driving the agenda for its own benefit.
 
Instead of telling us to go back to work now, tell us what are the triggers, the phases, and the contingency plans for the second wave. Please also tell us how we will ensure that our borders are safe as this is how the virus came on our shores from planes and cruises that had unfettered access for far too long. In our haste to open, let us not prompt a new influx and a second wave of confinement and deaths.
 
It would be such a shame that we only take the pain from the Great Lockdown and ignore the gains. It cannot be business as usual but a meaningful recognition that our well-being depends on us, the environment, the economy, society and institutions working together not at the expense of each other. It cannot be a matter of either or.
 
It is not a simple matter of navigating between Charybdis and Scylla. After all, Odysseus did not succumb to the lure of the songs of the beautiful Sirens who tried to trick his crew to certain death. It took Odysseus ten years but he did manage to get most of them home safe and sound. Let us pray that we steer the same course and that the journey ahead involves all of us.