Everyone I have spoken to since yesterday evening has been ecstatically praising government for the generous handouts dished out to everyone and their dog. I am running out of superlatives myself. And the table clappers in the national assembly didn’t miss out on the opportunity to thank the minister 103 times for not touching their exorbitant salaries, scrumptious fringe benefits and unconscionable per diems.

What’s not to like about this budget? Everyone wins and the euphoria in the vegetable market this morning is well justified. So is the air of superiority the African finance minister of the year so naturally has!

Everyone? Including economic analysts who understand what this is all about? Well, not really. Except that their comments are so subtle that, after a quick reading, you might walk away with the impression that they are happy. So I took the time to translate their diplomatic comments into plain English for you.

L’Association des Hôteliers et Restaurateurs de l'Ile Maurice: « Nous partageons l’optimisme du ministre qui pose l’objectif de 1.4 million de visiteurs pour la prochaine année financière…Il reste encore des décisions importantes à prendre en matière notamment de l’assouplissement du protocole sanitaire et de l’augmentation du nombre de sièges aériens. »

Possible Plain Language Translation (PPLT): “We wish we had the same capacity that the minister has to dream with his eyes open. Sadly, we have rooms to fill and employees to pay. It’s easy to pick figures out of a hat but you left out the most important things: 1. How do you expect to achieve such lofty targets when we are among the few countries still having stringent sanitary strictures? 2. How do you plan to get those tourists here? Through our anemic and ailing airline?

Anthony Leung Shing from PwC: “The danger ahead remains the high rate of inflation, which may undermine investments and consumption. A downturn in these two factors will slow down economic activity and will lead us in troubled waters!”

PPLT: If people cannot eat because prices are running away sky high and they have no money left, investors will vanish. In other words, you are leading us on the path taken by Sri Lanka.

Pierre Dinan for BDO: “While this budget, at first sight, gives an overall impression of widespread generosity easily achieved, it bears possible consequences for the future should the local economy continue facing the shocks encountered since 2020 and which are not abating…”

PPLT: “The freebies dished up in this budget will come back to bite us as the brown stuff we are deep in is not going away anytime soon.”  

Philippe Forget of La Sentinelle : « Le présent ministre des Finances sera sûrement encore ministre l’an prochain tellement il aura œuvré pour faire plaisir à tout le monde, sans passer une seconde de son discours à expliquer comment il finançait tout cela ! » 

PPLT: “The minister is only interested in staying in power. The problem is that money doesn’t grow on trees.”

Eric Ng of Pluriconseil : « Si l’épargne n’est pas suffisante pour que le pays s’offre de meilleures infrastructures publiques, alors il faut du temps pour l’accumuler. Faute de temps à ce stade du cycle politique, le budget 2022-2023 ne faisant pas exception à la règle, on continue de s’endetter en mettant l’accent sur la dépense. »

PPLT: “You can only spend what you have and since we don’t have anything left and the government is eying the next elections, we will continue to sink deeper and deeper into debt.”

When you put all these comments together, the picture which unequivocally crystallises is that the euphoria generated by the freebies will be short-lived and that sooner than later, payback time will come. It never takes long. That time came for Greece in 2008, for Lebanon in 2019 and is playing out right now in Sri Lanka.

We are walking up right behind in the shadow of those countries. Economics is like physics. The same causes produce the same effects. But please don’t let me spoil the fun as you enjoy the handouts today. Let’s have this conversation tomorrow instead.