More than a decade ago, the Arab Spring swept across the Middle East and Northern Africa. Have the hopes awakened by the pro-democracy uprisings vanished in Sub-Saharan Africa ? 

In the Arab world, economic advances and human security were long considered more important than democratic rights and transparency. Days before Mouamed Bouazizi (1984-2011) set himself on fire and the Tunisian revolution that started the whole domino effect, the Ben Ali regime was constantly praised by several international organizations for its economic progress and macro-economic statistics. The toppling of several autocratic regimes in North Africa, even though the revolution’s balance sheet as well as its successes and failures are still being debated, later confirmed that economic growth without political freedom and social equity is no longer sustainable. In Tunisia today, there are at least three noticeable outcomes. 1), a new constitution was introduced. 2), Tunisians can indulge in free speech and open criticism of those in power. 3), the revolution paved the way for peaceful and democratic transitions – although many say that the country remains “a procedural democracy” that has yet to fully sever ties to the old regime. 

In general, before Covid- 19, sub-Saharan Africa has experienced high-rates of economic growth (between 5-6%) since the mid-1990s, but increased wealth and prosperity level have not reached all segments of the population though. 

Despite the democratic advances of African countries south of the Sahara, the legacy of “big man” politics continues and goes rather unchallenged. If the Arab Spring events could not be a driver for change – since the sub-Saharan democratic advances predate the Arab Spring in terms of democratic institutions and oversight – the fruits of the Arab Spring constitute surely a trigger in the sense that there have been popular protests in more than a dozen African capitals that called for greater political pluralism, transparency, and accountability in 2021 and 2022. Many of those protests are still referencing the Arab Spring as a model. While the winds of change brought about would not be institutional in nature, they still can certainly reshape – by rising them - expectations that sub-Saharan African citizens have of their leaders, who tend to stay too long in power, or to share the power among their small self-constituted political elite. 

Many argue that any forthcoming changes in sub-Saharan Africa will not be as spectacular as in North Africa, probably due to the fact that the lines between democratic and autocratic regimes are increasingly blurry. There has actually been a noticeable rise in what is called semiauthoritarian regimes – those that combine the rhetorical acceptance of liberal democracy with the existence of formal democratic institutions – like the Electoral Supervisory Commissions or Audit Departments, which prove to be toothless bulldogs – as well as a pseudo-respect for civil and political liberties. 

This facade is deliberately promoted by regimes determined to maintain the appearance of democracy. We all know how electoral reforms are promised but never accomplished, and elections become a legal way to validate authoritarian leaders. While some countries such as Cameroon, Djibouti, and Gabon, have tried successfully to amend Constitutions in order to extend the term-limits of the big man, others have failed in doing so (Malawi, Zambia, Nigeria). And finally, countries like Mauritius, the Kingdom of Eswatini, Zimbabwe, simply do not have any restrictions on tenure.

Sooner or later, the semidemocracies may be forced to become real democracies. The main take-away from the Arab Spring might well be the fact that no matter how much money you have, no matter how much security you control, it is hard to stop a people from rising against inequalities – the surge in the youth population in Africa is changing the age-structure and behavior of societies. The young are better informed and connected to the world than the previous generations. They are exposed to the root causes for the ongoing discontent : massive youth unemployment, stagnating economies, endemic corruption and feckless political elites. Today with rising inflation rates (and Putin’s war in Ukraine), young Africans are worried about starvation and state collapse, much more than in 2011. There is today a perceptible sense that citizens across Sub-Saharan Africa will no longer passively sit back and accept abuses of power.