After months of preparatory meetings and a media frenzy that would’ve made Michael Jackson blush, the United Nations conference on climate change finally opened yesterday. Sadly, there wasn’t an inspirational speech to be heard. The media centre was underwhelmed. Everyone recited their lines as if they were passing an exam: the words seemed to be about right but they were not being uttered with any discernable degree of belief. Who says the Mauritian education system doesn’t have its admirers? You’d think that the planet deserves a bit more passion. One lives, one learns.

 And there is indeed a lot to learn here. On one of the many TVs in the media centre, kids are standing in line holding silver boxes on which are written a string of bold words: People. Want. A. Fair. Ambitious. Binding. Deal. Tellingly, no one’s paying much attention to them. In a sense, they’re a bit like Small Island Developing States (SIDS): cute and fragile, but not worthy of much consideration. Still, if the SIDS are able to play their cards right and whip up a savant mix of media manipulation and political pressure, they might end up being the stars of COP15. The conference needs them as badly as they need it.

This is not as outlandish as it sounds. SIDS, like polar bears, symbolize the growing menace of climate change. Not an hour goes by here without someone talking about the need to save them. During a press briefing by Climate Action Network (CAN), a coalition of militant NGOs, such as Greenpeace and Oxfam, yesterday SIDS were especially popular. SIDS need to use this sympathy and symbolism to their advantage. That’s why it’s important that the Alliance of small island States (AOSIS) play an active role in negotiations. It must do its damnedest to ensure that the world’s big polluters are not given an easy ride.

Yet the whole system is skewed against small island states to begin with. The UNFCCC’s objective is to keep global warming under 2ºC. This is not good enough. In the admirably-succinct words of a poster campaign here: “2 degrees = 2 much”, meaning that such an increase will cause a rise in sea-level that will threaten the survival of many SIDS. Calls by SIDS to limit temperature increases to 1.5ºC (“1.5 to stay alive”) have gone unheeded. And even if 2ºC were an acceptable target, we’re unlikely to meet it anyway. Despite pledges for emissions cuts from several big polluters, temperatures will in all likelihood rise above the 2ºC ceiling. This is very bad news for the world, but even worse news for SIDS.

Having said all this, is the COP15 a foregone conclusion or will the fact that the whole world is looking on push leaders into making more ambitious decisions? Well, it’s still too early in the day to say, but it’s important to stress that it’s not just the quantum of emissions cuts that will matter. The deal will mean nothing if it’s not legally-binding. There’s been a lot of talk about it being a politically-binding deal. Over and above the fact that it sounds like an oxymoron, it’ll give countries the opportunity to renege far too easily on their pledges once the media blitz dies down.

The SIDS have their work cut out from them. They should always keep in mind the words of CAN, “Survival is non-negotiable”.

Nicholas RAINER