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Kissinger

The Oracle?

2 décembre 2023, 08:55

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The Oracle?

Henry Kissinger, who died Nov. 29 at the age of 100, became a legend long before his death. For students of international relations, his insights remain essential for understanding global power dynamics, especially amid conflicts such as Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas in Gaza. His books, speeches, positions, and negotiation tactics shaped the Cold War, including the excision of the Chagos Islands from Mauritius in a deal involving Polaris missiles between the U.S. and the U.K. Today, Kissinger’s influence on U.S. foreign policy and Bretton Woods institutions endures.

In the 1960s, nations seeking independence or economic survival had to choose sides. There was no middle ground.

Kissinger’s legacy as a Cold War strategist, advisor to Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, and globe-trotting diplomat is immense. Despite his age, world leaders sought his advice on complex issues like climate and carbon taxes until recently.

Under Nixon, Kissinger opened U.S.-China relations and negotiated arms control with the Soviet Union. However, he prolonged the Vietnam War, extending conflict into Laos and Cambodia, causing civilian casualties. He supported leaders in Pakistan and Indonesia, armed Argentine forces, and backed General Pinochet’s military coup in Chile.

At the heart of his legacy is centralizing foreign policy in the White House, shaping America’s role as the sole superpower in 2023.

Despite credible accusations of war crimes, which he denied, Kissinger is also admired for his sharp understanding of realpolitik and national interest, focused on maximizing U.S. economic and military power.

Kissinger, in a Davos speech, emphasized the need for strength to resist pressure, defining and defending vital interests, a view he pursued as National Security Advisor and Secretary of State.

In his first book, a thesis, Kissinger argued foreign policymakers are judged by their ability to recognize shifts in global power and leverage them for national benefit. In this foreign policy model, U.S. political values like democracy and human rights play no role.

This approach and Kissinger’s top position in foreign policy made him a go-to oracle for U.S. policymakers across the spectrum.

However, Kissinger’s record reveals the pitfalls of a narrow national interest approach. His tenure in government was marked by policies often detrimental to the U.S.’s global position.

When Nixon took office in 1968, he promised to honorably end the Vietnam War. However, he faced challenges controlling the conflict, particularly Vietnam’s porous borders with Cambodia, through which North Vietnam received supplies and troops.

To address this, Nixon escalated bombing in Cambodia, started by President Lyndon Johnson, and launched a ground invasion to cut North Vietnamese supply routes. As Sir William Shawcross detailed, Kissinger intensified Nixon’s Cambodian policy.

In an interview, Kissinger warned that Western democracies, including the U.S., face “great danger” as the middle class disappears amid growing income inequality. He noted the middle class once fostered Western democracy during a period of relative political stability and technological steadiness. However, values of compromise and understanding are now threatened by rapid technological changes and widening income gaps, more evident than in Kissinger’s early days.