Samuel Finer once described the military in power as the "man on horseback". The metaphor of the man on horseback is of one who enjoys the pomp, peagrantry and glamour of power but sits precariously on the throne with trepidation. The horse gives comfort, pride and majesty to the horserider but at the same time, can be quite unpredictable, which can bounce off its prey when angry or dissatisfied. That is how Finer qualifies the life of politicians in uniform, who ride on the crest of populism to seize power. The legitimacy deficit of military rule and its anti-democratic culture, often sooner than later, expose its fragility and gross limitations in power.

With the political struggles for democratisation in the 1980s and 1990s, and the gains recorded in evolving liberal democratic systems in many African countries, however imperfect they may be, the tendency was to assume that military rule was indeed a thing of the past in Africa.

From Johannesburg in celebrating the end of apartheid in 1994 and ushering in a non-racial democratic South Africa, to Bamako in Mali where decentralisation was being celebrated as a major pathway in entrenching popular participation and inclusive democratic governance, the drums were loud with sweet melodies that the citizens have finally gained control of their destiny in choosing who to rule them and having a say in how they would be governed.

In ensuring a lasting celebration, the citizens sought to codify the re-birth of liberal democracy in their regional frameworks to ensure that never again should power be illegally siezed. The African Union at birth in 2002 in succeeding the OAU spelt it out clearly in its Constitutive Act that power usurpers will no longer be welcome in Addis Ababa –Africa's defacto political capital. In both its objectives and principles, the Constitutive Act unambiguously affirms its predilection for democratic rule. Article 3 (g) clearly states that the Union shall "promote democratic principles and institutions, popular participation and good governance". Erring member-states were to be denied seats at the table and were no longer welcome to participate in the meetings and activities of the Union. This was to send a powerful signal of business unusual; that there would be zero tolerance for coup d'etats.

Africa enjoyed some relative peace and stability under democratic governance accompanied by relative economic growth. The 1990s and early 2000s were high points in the economic progress of the Continent. Growth rebounced with over 5% GDP growth rate with some countries having two digit growth rates –11%- 12%. As progress dawned, the global perception and narrative about the Continent began to change. Suddenly, Africa, which had been riddled with "Afro-pessimism" on the global stage gradually assumed the darling of the World. New epitaphs of "the land where the sun shines bright", or the "rising Continent" replaced the hitherto pejorative and perverse notion of a "hopeless Continent".

To consolidate the gains made and create sustainable shared prosperity, a long-term regional development framework was enacted in Agenda 2063. Again, democratic aspiration resurfaced in Africa's 'Marshall plan' towards prosperity. The vision of Agenda 2063 is for "an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in the international arena”. Democratic governance, promotion of human rights, justice and rule of law constitute a major foundation for building a peaceful and prosperous Africa.

“There should be a lifestyle audit for all political office holders and senior government officials to ensure that they live according to their means. Both the leaders and the led must bear the burden of a bad economic weather.”

However, the Covid and post-Covid eras have seen a dramatic reversal in democratic gains in Africa. African countries are succumbing one after the other to the iron law of the military, with Gabon as the latest victim. West Africa seems to be the epic-centre in the drama of coup d'etat with five countries having experienced it in the region and no less than eight on the Continent recently.

What went wrong in Africa? Why are the soldiers coming back? What could we have done differently? Covid 19 exposed the tenuous socio-economic conditions in Africa. As the pandemic ravaged the world, Africa had few resources to combat it and ensure a minimum stable livelihood for its people. As companies closed and laid off workers, poverty soared with no less than 55 million people slipping into poverty by 2021. The health sector virtually collapsed and government income to provide basic services went down considerably. Hyper-inflation, power outages, bad roads, strikes in the educational sector, demand for higher wages by workers both in the private and public sectors were regular scenes. Military rule grew out of the womb of popular discontent.

In the Sahel region, the unregulated flow of small arms and light weapons in the "ungoverned desert of the Sahel" coupled with the damaging effects of the largely man-induced climate pressures, robbed young people of their means of livelihood, of farming and grazing vegetation for their cattles. These displaced young people were to be lured as foot soldiers for the insurgent forces in the Sahel. Gun assumed their means of livelihood. Increasing poverty and insecurity became an alibi for the military to over-stage the civilian rulers.

Putting the pieces together in Africa and halting the dangerous drift towards military rule will require strong policy actions by African countries. Democratic rule must provide tangible material returns for the people in consolidating its value. Pro-poor policies must be formulated that allow ordinary citizens to live decent lives. The basic necessities of life – food, clothing and shelter must be the barest minimum for every African citizen.

The cost of governance is quite heavy in many African countries and requires to be drastically reduced. The peck of office and privileges for political office holders are mostly not in sync with available resources and the socio-economic realities of many countries. There should be a lifestyle audit for all political office holders and senior government officials to ensure that they live according to their means. Both the leaders and the led must bear the burden of a bad economic weather.

Politics must cease to be a shortcut to wealth and resource accumulation; it must be about service, dedication, humility and commitment to development. Politics as access to material prosperity will continue to provide incentive for military adventure in power.

The legacy of Julius Nyerere in Tanzania is quite key to the continued stability and democratic consolidation of the country. Of a simple bohemian lifestyle, dedicated to service, commitment and the public good, Mwalimu Nyerere left a footprint of a culture of public service and leadership for the common good. There are lessons to learn from Nyerere and his genre.

Military personnel are not from the moon; they are ordinary citizens in uniform. They breathe the same way, feel the same heat, eat the same food, observe and live in the same environment as everyone else. Their possession of the instruments of coercion and violence stand them out in society. And this is what they deploy to seize power illegally. The incentive for coup making must be drastically reduced through leadership by service and example by democratic rulers, respect for the rule of law and due process, orderly process of leadership succession and change through credible elections, term limit in power that makes for leadership renewal and creates opportunity of leadership aspirations for other citizens and ensuring decent livelihood for the citizens. The citizens are the greatest asset and bulwark against coups; we must invest in them as key allies of a democratic future.

Adejumobi lives in Addis Ababa and writes in his personal capacity.