As the final months of the legislative term approach, a survey conducted by Syntheses for l’express in late 2023 has highlighted key aspects of the electorate’s desires, hinting at the government’s strategy for the upcoming elections. Using this framework, we can better apprehend how the government might use targeted measures to influence different voter segments.

Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth recently announced an increase in pensions for citizens over 75 to Rs 13,500 starting January 2024. This move, while fulfilling a past promise, also appears to be a strategic effort to appeal to the older segment of the population, particularly amid rising inflation.

The survey revealed a significant desire for political renewal among Mauritian voters, especially those under 50, who constitute a large majority. However, there is skepticism about the emergence of a new leader before the next elections, and local analysts consider it unlikely for a new figure to establish themselves and form a credible team within a year. Facing these challenges, the government seems to be breaking down the electorate into different segments, addressing each with tailored solutions. Besides the pension increase for the elderly, Jugnauth has made another significant announcement. On New Year’s Day, he promised that public sector employees working in essential services on a shift system will receive double pay on Sundays. This initiative targets a different workforce segment, aiming to address longstanding pay inequality issues.

These strategic moves by the government, including the pension increase and pay adjustments for public sector employees, demonstrate a concerted effort to appeal to specific voter groups. While these measures might be seen as “electoral sweeteners”, they also address genuine concerns of these segments.

With the elections drawing closer, it is evident that the ruling parties are using both media announcements and policy changes to connect with various voter demographics. Whether these efforts will lead to electoral success remains to be seen, but for now, the political landscape is marked by targeted strategies to win over the electorate, one segment at a time.

Similar to business marketers using data mining for segmenting and targeting markets, political marketers do the same. American National Election Studies identify a small number of variables and rules that can predict individual voting behavior, including abstention, intending to segment the electorate in useful and meaningful ways. This process provides rules for identifying voter segments based on their predicted vote choice, with some segments’ vote choice predictable with up to 87% accuracy.

These results suggest that data mining methodology can increase efficiency for political campaigns. They also imply that, from a democratic theory perspective, overall participation may be improved by communicating more effective messages that better inform intended voters and motivate individuals to vote who might otherwise abstain.