"The flooding of port louis – and other parts of the country causing the deaths of two of our fellow citizens and the dramatic scenes of cars and tombs being carried away, not forgetting the trauma of all those caught unaware due to the bad policy decisions of the authorities – has led to popular anger against the government."

This week, we talk to historian Jocelyn Chan Low about the general atmosphere in the country, the popularity or lack thereof of the government as well as the opposition and we seek his views on when he thinks the elections will take place…

If we were to talk about the political situation today, would you say that there is a pre-Belal and after-Belal as far as the mind-set of the people is concerned?

To say that Cyclone Belal and its impact on Mauritius is a turning point in Mauritian politics is highly debatable. It is true that the flooding of Port Louis – and other parts of the country causing the deaths of two of our fellow citizens and the dramatic scenes of cars and tombs being carried away, not forgetting the trauma of all those caught unaware due to the bad policy decisions of the authorities – has led to popular anger against the government. But since 2019, this government has never been popular with the Mauritian population. The MSM and its allies polled only 37% of the vote cast at the last election – that is less than 30% of the total electorate. The latest opinion poll from Synthèses published by l’express shows that its popularity has not improved since. On the contrary, the polls suggested that the united opposition would easily win the general elections if they were to be held next Sunday. These are the three fundamentals of Mauritian politics and I don’t think they have been altered by cyclones Belal or Candice.

Are you saying that Belal was not a wakeup call and that the population has been awake all this time and aware of the incompetence and negligence of the government?

I think the Mauritian population in general has seen through all this for quite a long time. The Wakashio affair was a clear illustration of how the incompetence of some could lead to tragedy and havoc. And they showed their exasperation and anger through marches with record assistance in Port Louis and Mahebourg. But the fever soon fizzled out not only because other scandals and allegations followed but also because those who present themselves as an alternative to this government and its policies, both in the parliamentary and extra parliamentary opposition, are not devoid of a political past tainted with the same defects like nurturing incompetence through weird appointments and nominations, cronyism, nepotism...

To the level we are talking about today

Certainly not. In the wake of the victory of l’ Alliance Lepep in 2014, with the arrest of Navin Ramgoolam, many top civil servants were brought before the tribunal in an atmosphere of witch-hunt more ferocious than the Lev pake ale of 2005. Moreover, a plan has since been unfolded by the authorities for the complete takeover of all institutions. This has inevitably led to the present situation.

How exactly did we get into ‘the present situation’ as you call it where almost every institution in this country and every socio-cultural organisation is at the beck and call of the government?

Despite its defects and some of the harsh provisions – like the ones relative to the state of emergency – the constitution of 1968 contained provisions relative to checks and balances which acted as brakes on any attempt to transform the system into an illiberal democracy where too much power is vested in one man, namely the prime minister. But some of these provisions have been knocked out after independence. Take the case of Constitutional amendment 2 of 1982. It did consolidate democracy by making the postponement of general elections more or less impossible. However, article 113 of the amendment in effect changed the nature of some constitutional posts. For example, according to the constitution of 1968, the commissioner of police was nominated for a minimum of four years. This guaranteed him the possibility of working independently of any pressure. But as from 1982, he would be nominated for a maximum of four years and was hence more liable to the control of a PM who could even nominate for three months only!

It’s true that at the time there was a genuine fear that the establishment that had been nominated by SSR would try to sabotage the action of the MMM/ PSM government but by weakening the immunities and privileges of top civil servants and some holders of constitutional posts, the door was opened to greater control of the civil administration by the politicians in power.

As to socio-cultural organisations many of their office bearers have acted since long as political entrepreneurs that have a tendency to work with the government of the day for material gains.

What about the private sector that once stood so tall?

One of the great enigmas of post-independence Mauritius is how the historical bourgeoisie – which makes up the most powerful section of the private sector – has managed to leave direct involvement in local politics while retaining tremendous influence. Perhaps the financing of all political parties and some influential individuals is the key to any understanding of this situation. Hence, if the private sector is silent, this may be due to the fact that their interests are far from being threatened. On the contrary, they are thriving and in case of difficulties, like what happened during the Covid 19 epidemic, they can bank on the government to bail them out...Besides, there is no longer any talk – fake or not – of the ‘democratisation of the economy’ today compared to the era of the Labour Party through Nita Deerpalsing and Cader Sayed Hossen...

The government’s argument to justify the disastrous management of Belal is that there are more and more natural disasters due to climate change. Isn’t that convincing enough?

Global warming and climatic change are the easy explanation that any government across the world would use in such a situation. In Mauritius itself, it was used in 2008 and in 2013 to explain the tragedy caused by the flash floods. However, this time, the authorities had years to get the country and the population ready. For example, the report of the Senior Magistrate Ida Dookhy-Ramabarun on the flooding in Port Louis of 2013 was submitted to the authorities as far back as 2015. What measures have been undertaken to implement its key recommendations like the pulling down of all the structures that cover the Ruisseau du Pouce? It was only in March 2023 that the Municipality of Port Louis voted to initate action to pull down the hawkers’ corner near the Jardin de la Compagnie , the KFC building and the parking of Rogers Ltd that the report singled out as the biggest obstacles to the evacuation of water to the sea. And even then not much has been accomplished because of a court case. In the meantime, Belal has struck the capital... Moreover, the flooding at St Jean cemetery is something of a déjà vu. Hence, the responsibility of the authorities is flagrant.

A lot of blame was laid on the cyclone warnings issued by our meteorological station…

The warning system has led to much confusion. While the dangers came mainly from heavy rainfall, it seems the public was focusing much more on cyclone warning which it equates with the speed and strength of the wind...

Quite frankly, what can you do about climate change?

To be fair, this is a problem that dates back to well before the coming to power of this government. For example at a press conference following the flash floods of 2013, Patrick Assirvaden revealed that it was Sir Anerood Jugnauth who had introduced a bill in parliament to allow the construction on bridges, facilitating the erection of the Rogers Parking.. And we can go as far back as the engineers’ report of 1879 which recommended that no buildings be erected from the Champs de Mars to La Chaussée for this would affect the evacuation of water to the sea... However, in general, the impact of the climatic change has been greatly increased by bad policy decisions as regard to reckless urbanisation and infrastructural and housing development that increased the risks of flooding – like for example, housing estate developments in areas prone to water accumulation and flooding.

Hence the widespread anger. Would you say that there has been a shift in the mind-set of the government as well as the prime minister is talking for the first time about the possibility of losing? How significant is that?

I guess that Cyclone Belal has greatly upset his plans to garner the support of the 70% of the electorate that had distanced itself from all mainstream and extra parliamentary parties through a series of measures designed to boost the feel good factor, like for example a high cost of living compensation, a significant increase of the minimum wage and of the old age pension for the elder senior citizens. But Belal, combined with the increase in the price of some commodities produced locally, has dissipated the impact of these measures and some MPs of his alliance are now no longer welcome in their constituencies. But that he might lose has always been part of the equation. The hardcore of the various parties has vanished and the great bulk of the electorate shows no particular allegiance to any leader, party or alliance and will no doubt decide at the last minute. This high uncertainty is certainly nerve-wracking!

Does this mean that the small alliances stand a chance of becoming the majority in parliament?

Or that the regime will double up its efforts at winning them over by enlarging further the welfare provisions and coming up with populist promises of all kinds while trying to split and discredit the opposition – like for example spreading rumours that XLD will soon join the MSM ranks.

Will this strategy work?

It’s difficult to predict as we are in a completely new situation as regards the electorate. In the past, the hard-core of the various parties made up the majority and winning formulas were just about devising the right political alliance and front bench. Now the various ‘hard-core’ have melted away and the majority is highly critical and skeptical of the political class. It’s anyone’s guess what could win them over and whether the bait of direct material gains will suffice.

What about the strategy of taking the press as his main challenger?

He knows very well that the press could be either an ally or a terrible foe. Contrary to the situation prevalent in many western democracies, where those who are critical of the mainstream parties also target the press as being part of the same establishment, in Mauritius the press has remained, at least until now, one of the most trusted institutions. The rate of confidence is extremely high as revealed by several opinion polls. Definitely it is much higher than that of the political class. We can expect in this year of elections all sorts of pressure on the press and on individual journalists – both in the newspapers and in private radios – to toe the line in his strategy of winning over the floating voters which today makes up around ¾ of the population.

If, as you seem to be saying, ¾ of the population are undecided and the MSM has about a third on their side, what is left for the opposition?

It’s much less than 1/3 for the MSM. Synthèses gave the Labour/MMM/PMSD opposition alliance a score of 36% among those who expressed their political preferences against 24% for the government alliance but that was back in September 2023.

Are we heading for an election this year or will Pravind Jugnauth wait for people’s anger to subside?

It is a fact that in a tropical country where cyclones – and now flooding – are a serious risk, he cannot wait for the last minute before the end of his term of office to organise general elections. It’s simply too risky and Cyclone Belal has highlighted this fact in a dramatic fashion. Personally, I don’t think he will wait for another cyclonic or rainy season but will rather organise a snap election, most probably around August after a la bouche doux budget. Also, to wait for the end of the year will add a great burden on the Electoral Supervisory Commission for the recruitment of necessary staff to supervise the polls as many teachers and education officers will be busy with exam supervision or marking. All the talk of elections in 2025 is simply to put the opposition off-track and make the leaders delay the settlement of several key issues like the composition of the front bench, the list of candidates, the programme etc. And he should well know that some within the alliance are known for their indecision or procrastination.

What should the opposition do then?

The opposition should first and foremost address the issue of the credibility gap that has developed, rightly or wrongly, between its leaders and the population through a thorough exercise of rebranding. And that is no mean affair. In more established democracies, after a defeat at the polls, the leader usually steps down and the exercise of rebranding is carried through by another leadership. In Mauritius, this unfortunately has never been the case because in effect our party system revolves around parties that have degenerated into personal parties that are neither democratic nor collective but rather the property of one man, who sometimes finally sets up a dynasty. This is what makes the creation of a credible alternative difficult.

So what’s the way out given this situation?

I guess the only way out is a compromise where the maximum of new and highly credible elements are introduced as candidates and members of the shadow cabinet while the historical leaders take up the function of mentors. To take things further, ideally the leader of the Labour Party would share his Prime Ministership with another high ranking member of the Labour Party itself on a two-year/three-year basis.

Besides, a programme of institutional reform should be high on the agenda to restore confidence in the system while enlarging the welfare state, not simply to counter the promises of the government but because this is the only way to redress historical inequalities.

And how can the opposition counter money politic

Of course, there is the need to set up electoral machinery that could cope with that of the MSM and its allies. And this involves tremendous costs, for the hardcore sympathiser who works for free is becoming more and more a rare species. So money politics and government budgetary largesse will definitely be great hurdles for the opposition during the coming electoral campaign. Their impact would be lesser if the opposition could craft a project for a society that would be democratic, fair and just that would be carried by a team of competent leaders with an unblemished past. The solution hence lies within the alliance itself. Opinion polls have revealed what the majority of the electorate wants. To go against their wishes to pursue selfish ambitions means courting disaster.